A forecast of the correlation between two asset prices is required to price or hedge an option whose payoff depends on both asset prices or to measure the risk of a portfolio whose return depends on both asset prices. However, a number of factors make it difficult to evaluate forecasts of...

We study whether aggregation residuals in U.S. private investment in information technology (IT) exhibit a predictable pattern that is consistent with Hicks' composite-good theorem and that may be used for forecasting. To determine whether one can extract such a pattern, we apply the...

The effect of the unification of the European banking market on the efficiency of the allocation of capital across Europe depends on the economic forces behind banking structure. Such forces are not well understood. The paper discusses a conceptual framework for analyzing financial services...

The paper develops an empirical model to explain growth of total assets of a sample of the world's largest banks. The model was estimated over a period in which U.S. banks' assets grew less rapidly than the assets of large banks headquartered in other industrial countries. The model provides an...

In addition to dominating the list of the world's largest banks, Japanese banks currently account for about two-fifths of measured international banking assets of all banks. Between year-end 1984 and year-end 1988 Japanese banks accounted for slightly over one-half of the measured growth of...

The EC program to complete the internal market is designed to allow the free movement of goods, persons, services, and capital within the Community by the target date of December 31, 1992. This paper provides a comprehensive description and analysis of the EC program for the financial sector,...

This paper proposes a tripartite framework of design, evaluation, and post-evaluation analysis for generating and interpreting economic forecasts. This framework's value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic models and nonlinearity biases from empirical...

Under current law, domestic deposits of federally insured banks are subject to a 1/12th of one percent per annum insurance assessment, while foreign deposits are not. This paper examines the arguments for and against extending this assessment to foreign branch deposits of insured banks, which in...

Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in...

This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models,...