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Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349180
A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014416011
The issue of modelling observations generated in matrix form over time is key in economics, finance and many domains of application. While it is common to model vectors of observations through standard vector time series analysis, original matrix-valued data often reflect different types of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014237100
Most economic time series, such as GDP, real exchange rate and banking series are irregular by nature as they may be affected by a variety of discrepancies, including political changes, policy reforms, import-export market instability, etc. When such changes entail serious consequences for time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655765
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191411
We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399681
Divergent priors are improper when defined on unbounded supports. Bartlett's paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in ill-defined Bayes factors, preventing model comparison by posterior probabilities. However many improper priors have attractive properties that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382697
Divergent priors are improper when defined on unbounded supports. Bartlett's paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in ill-defined Bayes factors, preventing model comparison by posterior probabilities. However many improper priors have attractive properties that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131496
This paper explains how the Gibbs sampler can be used to perform Bayesian inference on GARCH models. Although the Gibbs sampler is usually based on the analyti-cal knowledge of the full conditional posterior densities, such knowledge is not available in regression models with GARCH errors. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014197191
We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005987