This note presents a nonparametric Bayesian approach to fitting a distribution to the survey data provided in Kilian and Zha (2002) regarding the prior for the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). A point mass at infinity is included. The unknown density is represented as...

Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...

The random coefficients logit model is a workhorse in marketing and empirical industrial organizations research. When only aggregate data are available, it is customary to calibrate the model based on market shares as data input, even if the data are available in the form of aggregate counts....

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...