We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative....

This paper is concerned with the problem of deriving expressions for the Bayesian predictive survival functions for the median of future sample of generalized order statistics having odd and even sizes. Both of the informative and future samples are drawn from a population whose distribution is...

To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models to handle non-linear, time-varying relationships between these fundamentals and exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model...

A 2017 paper by Harris argues that financial returns are a mixture distribution and that the dominant distribution is the truncated Cauchy distribution. Both the mixture nature and the poor properties of the truncated Cauchy distribution functionally exclude both the Frequentist and the...