This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for estimating probability of a downturn in the economy and applies it to the 2007-2008 state of the U.S. economy with the focus on investigating the occurrence of a recession. In the methodological development, information theory (Kullback and Shannon)...

This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...

The problem of modeling the revision of the information of a decision maker based on the information of the expert sources is considered. The basic model assumes that the information of the decision maker and expert sources is in the form of the probability mass functions. The modeling approach...