We present an algorithm, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for Bayesian inference in AR-GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks at unknown dates. Break dates are directly treated as parameters and the number of breaks is determined by the marginal likelihood...

Dynamic volatility and correlation models with fixed parameters are restrictive for time series subject to breaks. GARCH and DCC models with changing parameters are specified using the sticky infinite hidden Markov-chain framework. Estimation by Bayesian inference determines the adequate number...

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for...

GARCH volatility models with fixed parameters are too restrictive for long time series due to breaks in the volatility process. Flexible alternatives are Markov-switching GARCH and change-point GARCH models. They require estimation by MCMC methods due to the path dependence problem. An unsolved...

Chapter written for the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications on Empirical Macroeconomics, edited by Nigar Hashimzade and Michael Thornton, forth- coming in 2012 (Edward Elgar Publishing). This chapter presents an introductory review of Bayesian methods for research in empirical...

We estimate by Bayesian inference the mixed conditional heteroskedasticity model of (Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella 2004a). We construct a Gibbs sampler algorithm to compute posterior and predictive densities. The number of mixture components is selected by the marginal likelihood criterion. We...

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process....

We consider the estimation of a large number of GARCH models, of the order of several hundreds. To achieve parsimony, we classify the series in a small number of groups. Within a cluster, the series share the same model and the same parameters. Each cluster contains therefore similar series. We...

We propose a new multivariate volatility model where the conditional distribution of a vector time series is given by a mixture of multivariate normal distributions. Each of these distributions is allowed to have a time-varying covariance matrix. The process can be globally covariance-...