This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period...

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

This paper provides a reverse mode derivative for DSGE models. Reverse mode differentiation enables the efficient computation of gradients from the model likelihood to the model parameters. These gradients can then be used by derivative based sampling algorithms including the No U-Turn Sampler....

This paper proposes a Differential-Independence Mixture Ensemble (DIME) sampler for the Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models. It allows sampling from particularly challenging, high-dimensional black-box posterior distributions which may also be computationally expensive to evaluate. DIME...

The paper contributes to understanding the economic dynamics at the zero lower bound and the exchange rate movements under different central bank intervention regimes. It provides a theoretical framework for modeling foreign exchange interventions at the ZLB within a dynamic general equilibrium...

This paper assesses that participation of countries in IMF programs significantly diminishes their vulnerability to external shocks. Currently, one of the primary purposes of the IMF is to ensure global stability. As such, the Fund has the responsibility of advising member countries on the...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...

This paper analyzes the contribution of anticipated capital and labor tax shocks to business cycle volatility in an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. While fiscal policy accounts for 12 to 20 percent of output variance at business cycle frequencies, the anticipated component hardly matters for...

Estimated DSGE models have become the standard workhorse model for empirically based macroeconomic analysis in recent years. In this paper, we present an estimated DSGE model for Denmark. The model has been estimated using Bayesian methods and a dataset consisting of 23 macroeconomic variables....