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This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation and comparison of flexible, high dimensional multivariate time series models with time varying correlations. The model proposed and considered here combines features of the classical factor model with that of the heavy tailed univariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441545
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-steps ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM's forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273631
Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005103392
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605581
We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114771
This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142044
This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model … model to various reduced-form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VARs) and vector error correction models … forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005511885
that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014548224