We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of US real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with a stochastic volatility component as the baseline...

We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of US real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with a stochastic volatility component as the baseline...

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...