We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECD countries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative prior based on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben- efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the...

Decision-makers often consult different experts to build reliable forecasts on variables of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximize the forecast accuracy is consequently a crucial issue in several economic problems. This paper applies a Bayesian beta mixture model to...

A Bayesian nonparametric predictive model is introduced to construct time-varying weighted combinations of a large set of predictive densities. A clustering mechanism allocates these densities into a smaller number of mutually exclusive subsets. Using properties of the Aitchinson's geometry of...