, estimated shrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain alternative specifications of the zero lower bound: replace the … interest rate expectations to deal with the nonlinearity in the policy rate. Since the policy rate will remain low for some …

convenient framework for simultaneously handling nonlinearity, structural change and outliers in time series. Many popular …

convenient framework for simultaneously handling nonlinearity, structural change and outliers in time series. Many popular …

endogeneity, nonlinearity and asymmetry. The econometric model is a smooth transition autoregressive vector estimated by Bayesian …

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …