changes in the dynamics of the series, for specifying models parsimoniously, and may be helpful in forecasting. We propose the …

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the … forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of …

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the … macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast … majority of cases. We find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many …

-level conflict is maintained and momentum toward either all-out war or dramatic peace is slowed. In addition, a forecasting model …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

We present an estimation and forecasting method, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for inference in GARCH … nearly all series. Finally, we carry out a forecasting exercise to evaluate the usefulness of structural break models. …