We study the optimal adaptation to extreme climate events by the central government in a setup where events are dynamically uncertain and the government does not know the true probabilities of events. We analyze different policy decision rules minimizing expected welfare losses for sites with...

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions...

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions...

In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to...

This paper extends the Baltagi et al. (2018, 2021) static and dynamic ε-contamination papers to dynamic space-time models. We investigate the robustness of Bayesian panel data models to possible misspecification of the prior distribution. The proposed robust Bayesian approach departs from the...

There is a large empirical literature trying to quantify the potentially adverse affects of climate change on the risk of violent armed conflict, which focuses almost exclusively on linking annual variation in climatic conditions to violence. A major shortcoming of this approach is that it...

The identification of the effects of climate shocks on economic growth is central to design effective policies aiming at managing the future global climate change challenge. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on economic growth across different...

The identification of the effects of climate shocks on economic growth is central to design effective policies aiming at managing the future global climate change challenge. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on economic growth across different...

Several studies provide evidence that heat is positively associated with criminal activity. However, the empirical literature does not provide conclusive evidence about the effect of high temperature on homicides. I examine 156 estimates from 20 studies on the relationship between temperature...