Showing 1 - 10 of 10,651
This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583556
This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649081
This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum …-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321290
This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum …-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584035
This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum …-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649034
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … and useful for forecasting. -- Bayesian methods ; Forecasting ; Term structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003990415
; DSGE Model ; Bayesian Analysis ; Forecasting ; Transmission of Shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003923369
1999Q4, and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072194
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014214672