If firms borrow working capital to finance production, then nominal interest rates have a direct influence on inflation dynamics, which appears to be the case empirically. However, interest rates may only partly mirror the cost of working capital. In this paper we explore the role of bank...

We study the relationship between bank lending standards, loan growth and the business cycle in the euro area and the US within a vector error correciton model using Bayesian estimation methods. To deal with the short data series available for the euro area, we exploit information from the...

Markov models introduce persistence in the mixture distribution. In time series analysis, the mixture components relate to different persistent states characterizing the state-specific time series process. Model specification is discussed in a general form. Emphasis is put on the functional form...

Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. Data augmentation for the multinomial logit model of the transition probabilities is alternatively based on a random utility and a difference in random utility...