Evidence from psychology and economics indicates that many individuals overestimate their ability, both absolutely and relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence. The first theory notes that simple statistical comparisons (for example, whether the...

Agents in a network want to learn the true state of the world from their own signals and their neighbors' reports. Agents know only their local networks, consisting of their neighbors and the links among them. Every agent is Bayesian with the (possibly misspecified) prior belief that her local...

Agents in a network want to learn the true state of the world from their own signals and their neighbors' reports. Agents know only their local networks, consisting of their neighbors and the links among them. Every agent is Bayesian with the (possibly misspecified) prior belief that her local...

We explore how internet browsing behavior varies between mobile phones and personal computers. Smaller screen sizes on mobile phones increase the cost to the user of browsing for information. In addition, a wider range of offline locations for mobile internet usage suggests that local activities...

When asset returns are unstable, investment performance directly depends on learning about their patterns optimally. Without optimal learning, strong investment performance is not possible. Yet, optimal learning is often considered too complex for investors to achieve. In order to test this...

How do people cope with tail risk? In a lab experiment that removed informational and incentive confounds, subjects overwhelmingly behaved like Bayesian learners. The results of simulations further revealed that if one is to survive under tail risk, one needs to follow the Bayesian approach, as...