Showing 1 - 10 of 1,632
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349997
methodology of constructing Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) consistent prior distributions for Bayesian Vector … Ravenna (2007) regarding structural VAR (SVAR) models and the normal prior density of the DSGE parameter vector. In line with … used to rank competing DSGE theories that aim to explain the same observed data (Geweke, 2005). Finally, motivated by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339762
This paper provides a reverse mode derivative for DSGE models. Reverse mode differentiation enables the efficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625302
stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We use the DSGE model priors to determine the moments of an independent Normal …-Wishart prior for the VAR parameters. Two hyper-parameters control the tightness of the DSGE-implied priors on the autoregressive … maximize the marginal likelihood of the Bayesian VAR provides a method for isolating subsets of DSGE parameter priors that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011886093
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155
A New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian households is estimated for the Portuguese economy and the stability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933328
A New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian households is estimated and tested for the Portuguese economy The share …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276120
Using Bayesian maximum likelihood and data for Portugal, I estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model allowing for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111995
This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142044