How does overconfidence arise and persist in the face of experience and feedback? We examine experimentally how individuals' beliefs about their absolute, as opposed to relative, performance on a quiz react to noisy, but unbiased, feedback. Participants believe themselves to have received...

How do individuals’ beliefs respond to ego-relevant information? After receiving noisy, but unbiased performance feedback, participants in an experiment overestimate their own scores on a quiz and believe their feedback to be ‘unlucky’, estimating that it under-represents their score by...