This study proposes an analytical framework towards behavioral political economy of institutional change. It considers institutional changes as central government’s choices under uncertainty, which are largely driven by the strategic outcomes in a behavioral coordination game between local...

We study a number of large international military conflicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the conflict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to...

This study proposes an analytical framework towards behavioral political economy of institutional change. It considers institutional changes as central government's choices under uncertainty, which are largely driven by the strategic outcomes in a behavioral coordination game between local...