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We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We...
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-like demand, that is, speculation sentiment. The leveraged ETFs' primary market is a novel setting that provides observable … proxies for the magnitude and direction of speculative demand shocks and I use it to form the Speculation Sentiment Index …. Using the index, I show that speculation sentiment is contrarian; For example, it is bullish in down markets. I also find …
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This paper presents the first evidence that retail investors play a central role in a speculative attack. Investigating the attacks that affected several emerging economies in the second semester of 2018, I document a strong influence of investor attention on the price and risk of the currency...
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This report seeks to shed light on the characteristics of currency carry trades in Latin America. Partly reflecting the degree of financial market integration and development, as well as the effects of regulation, carry trades in the region have typically been implemented by taking long forward...
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