We analyze the daily predictability of investor sentiment across four major asset classes and compare sentiment measures based on news and social media with those based on trade information. For the majority of assets, trade-based sentiment measures outperform their text-based equivalents for...

Using time-series trends of a set of firms' major fundamentals, we find that there is a fundamentalmomentum in the stock market. Buying stocks in the top quintile of fundamental trends and selling stocks in the bottom quintile earns a monthly average return of 0.88%, whose magnitude is...

We propose a new investor sentiment index that is aligned with the purpose of predicting the aggregate stock market. By eliminating a common noise component in sentiment proxies, the new index has much greater predictive power than existing sentiment indices both in- and out-of-sample, and the...