The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear technical or linear fundamental...

This paper presents the first evidence that retail investors play a central role in a speculative attack. Investigating the attacks that affected several emerging economies in the second semester of 2018, I document a strong influence of investor attention on the price and risk of the currency...

For the first time in 15 years, FX trading volumes contracted between two consecutive BIS Triennial Surveys. The decline in trading by leveraged institutions and "fast money" traders, and a reduction in risk appetite, have contributed to a significant drop in spot market activity. More active...

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a multi-trillion dollar market that epitomizes financialization due to its recent growth. This study examines the behavior of U.S. listed currency hedged ETF investors towards changes in the underlying benchmark and foreign exchange rate from July 2011 to...

In this paper, we examine the economic value of a text-based measure of financial integration. Our attention measure of financial integration is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns. Specifically, the financial integration measure is positively priced in the cross-section of...

In this study, we test a set of country macro sentiment indexes that measure the trailing sentiment on both scheduled and unscheduled economic and geopolitical news events. We develop a cross-over strategy in the FX market based on short to long-term news sentiment inflection points covering the...

Trading in the FX market reached an all-time high of $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013, a 35% increase relative to 2010. Non-dealer financial institutions, including smaller banks, institutional investors and hedge funds, have grown into the largest and most active counterparty segment. The...

This paper examines the trading behavior of individual investors using a proprietary intraday dataset of a large pool of retail investor aggregate (minute by minute) long and short positions in EUR/USD for the period July 2014 to April 2016. Standard event study analysis shows no significant...