We construct a momentum factor that identifies cross-sectional winners and losers based on a weighting scheme that incorporates all the price data, over the entire lookback period, as opposed to only the first and last price points of the window. The weighting scheme is derived from the...

We show that conditional skewness and kurtosis of the momentum strategy are highly time-varying and sometimes take extreme values or may even not exist. The high negative skewness and high kurtosis arise since the winners' and losers' skewness moves in opposite directions, whereas the kurtosis...

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...

We report systematic, out-of-sample evidence on the benefits to an already well diversified investor that may derive from further diversification into various hedge fund strategies. We investigate dynamic strategic asset allocation decisions that take into account investors' preferences as well...

We study dynamic portfolio choice of a long-horizon investor who uses deep learning methods to predict equity returns when forming optimal portfolios. Our results show statistically and economically significant benefits from using deep learning to form optimal portfolios through certainty...

We introduce a flexible utility-based empirical approach to directly determine asset allocation decisions between risky and risk-free assets. This is in contrast to the commonly used two-step approach where least squares optimal statistical equity premium predictions are first constructed to...

In Part 1 a simple market timing algorithm was described that switches from an exchange traded fund representing U. S. equities (SPY) to one holding treasury long bonds (TLT) every month on the last day, the switch being made to whichever ETF has the greatest ratio of current adjusted closing...

A simple market timing algorithm is examined that switches from an exchange traded fund representing U. S. equities to one holding treasury long bonds every month on the last day, the switch being made to whichever ETF has the greatest ratio of current adjusted closing price to adjusted closing...

We propose a dynamic Rational Expectations (RE) bubble model of prices with the intention to exploit it for and evaluate it on optimal investment strategies. Our bubble model is defined as a geometric Brownian motion combined with separate crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated...

We use firm characteristics to estimate the enduring momentum probabilities for past winners (losers) to continue to be future winners (losers). The enduring momentum probability is significantly related to stock return persistence and explains cross-sectional expected returns. In addition, it...