For the first time in 15 years, FX trading volumes contracted between two consecutive BIS Triennial Surveys. The decline in trading by leveraged institutions and "fast money" traders, and a reduction in risk appetite, have contributed to a significant drop in spot market activity. More active...

Trading in the FX market reached an all-time high of $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013, a 35% increase relative to 2010. Non-dealer financial institutions, including smaller banks, institutional investors and hedge funds, have grown into the largest and most active counterparty segment. The...

This special feature looks at trading activity in the foreign exchange market between the Triennial Surveys conducted in 2010 and 2013 and in the months following. We estimate that the $5.3 trillion per day reported for April 2013 was a peak, with activity falling subsequently by $300 billion to...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

In this study, we test a set of country macro sentiment indexes that measure the trailing sentiment on both scheduled and unscheduled economic and geopolitical news events. We develop a cross-over strategy in the FX market based on short to long-term news sentiment inflection points covering the...

This paper presents the first evidence that retail investors play a central role in a speculative attack. Investigating the attacks that affected several emerging economies in the second semester of 2018, I document a strong influence of investor attention on the price and risk of the currency...

We investigate the relation between the EUR/HUF exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand using intraday data. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the...

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the...

Currency investors exhibit a tendency to cut risk by pairing both longs and shorts following losses and a weaker tendency to add risk following gains. By differentiating between position level, portfolio level and aggregate cross-portfolio losses in currency investments we demonstrate that this...