Showing 1 - 10 of 1,868
We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372444
Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
A growing literature analyzes the cross-section of single stock option returns, virtually always under the (implicit or explicit) assumption of a monotonically decreasing pricing kernel. Using option returns, we non-parametrically provide significant and robust evidence that the pricing kernel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239311
When the pricing kernel is U-shaped, then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold, determined by the slope of the U-shaped kernel in its increasing region, and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940716
Institutional investors engage in trillions of dollars of regular portfolio rebalancing, often based on calendar schedules or deviations from allocation targets. We document that such rebalancing has a market impact and generates predictable price patterns. When stocks are overweight, funds sell...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361429
We build a model of the law of small numbers (LSN)--the incorrect belief that even small samples represent the properties of the underlying population--to study its implications for trading behavior and asset prices. In our model, a belief in the LSN induces investors to expect short-term price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544796
Adaptive Asset Allocation builds on Harry Markowitz’s 1952 Modern Portfolio Theory by providing greater risk management to traditional static allocation models. By adjusting risk exposures within the portfolio in response to the macroeconomic environment, investors can reduce exposure to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250291
We examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in the U.S. corporate bond market and the price impact of their herding behavior. We find that the level of institutional herding in corporate bonds is substantially higher than what is documented for equities, and that sell herding is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970593
We document a highly significant, strongly nonlinear dependence of stock and bond returns on past equity market volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that exploits additional variation in the cross section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971196
We analyze non-fundamental asset price deviations and their evolutions, and propose a rational, information-based explanation to them when traders are exposed to forced-trades (e.g. fire-sales, fire-purchases). The first objective of this study is to provide a generalized, information-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971774