We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

When the pricing kernel is U-shaped, then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold, determined by the slope of the U-shaped kernel in its increasing region, and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing...

What can studying the creation of knowledge tell us about how new technical fields emerge and develop? This paper shows how a knowledge community may be necessary to support the legitimacy of new products that undergo performance evaluation before purchase. Using historical and ethnographic data...

We hypothesize the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices. Using unique panel survey data on art market participants' confidence levels in the outlook for a set of artists, we find that sentiment indeed predicts short-term returns

We review the long-term investment performance of three important categories of emotional assets — stamps, art, and musical instruments. The long-run returns on these collectibles have been superior to the total return from government bonds and Treasury bills (and gold), at least before taking...

Supported by several recent investigations the empirical pricing kernel paradox might be considered as a stylized fact. In Chabi-Yo et al. (2008) simulation studies have been presented which suggest that this paradox might be caused by regime switching of stock prices in financial markets....

Supported by several recent investigations, the empirical pricing kernel (EPK) puzzle might be considered a stylized fact. Based on an economic model with state dependent preferences for the financial investors, we want to emphasize a microeconomic view that succeeds in explaining the puzzle. We...

In this paper, we explain main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the rational dynamic asset pricing framework. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered by a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec's weighting...

Diversification has been long considered an essential part of investing for the long term. Our paper aims to look further on portfolio diversification and how asset allocation can be optimized. We suggest that the selection of investments in a portfolio should be based on how the market behaves...