A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...

In this paper we consider modeling and forecasting of large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We propose using Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality to a manageable one and provide strong theoretical performance guarantees on the forecast...

Stock prices are well known to exhibit behaviors that are difficult to model mathematically. Individual stocks are observed to exhibit short term price reversals and long term momentum, while their industries only exhibit momentum.Here we show that individual stocks can be modeled by simple mean...

This paper studies the return behaviour at National Stock Exchange, India and the Rupee-Dollar exchange rate, using NSE's Nifty as the benchmark for stock returns, while INR-USD rate is used as the benchmark for exchange rate. The daily closing levels of the two benchmarks for a period beginning...