Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market...

Acknowledgments -- Beginning -- The early days in Adams and University of 4 Massachusetts in Amherst -- Reminiscences of the early days in Berkeley -- The start of a new department in Vancouver -- What is Japan doing right to get all that -- Money? : will they lose it? -- The bond-stock earnings...

The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy (KCGIS) is to maximize the expected utility of nal wealth with a logarithmic utility function. This approach dates to Bernoulli's 1738 suggestion of log as the utility function arguing that marginal utility was proportional to the reciprocal of...

The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (last five trading days October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year (late October to the end of April) has essentially all the year's gains. In this paper we show that there is a statistically significant...

This paper categorizes investors into five groups. They are: efficient markets, risk premium, genius superior traders, rejectors of efficient market theory and those who use research to make superior risk adjusted returns. Successful investment involves estimation and optimization and these are...