Panel attrition has not only the potential to bias population estimates but it may also inflate the variance of the estimates from panel surveys. Thus it is essential for an ongoing panel survey to monitor not only the size of the panel attrition and the potential biases that may occur but also...

After a comparative study of the Lee-Carter forecasting method and looking into the direct extrapolation of mortality by age and sex, this paper advocates the use of the latter method. The method is, however, supplemented by additional procedures in order to improve its efficiency in the short...

The accuracy of U.N. population projections is examined. The goal is to measure the amount of uncertainty associated with past projections of the United Nations in order to provide a reaiistic measure of the uncertainty in the projection that the U.N. makes in the future. Various descriptive...

Finanzmathematische und demographische Methoden werden präsentiert, um den Einfluß von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung zu präsentieren. Finanzmathematische Methoden berücksichtigen nicht die Altersstruktur einer Bevölkerung und können daher nur als Approximation...