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Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
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forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean … directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional …
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regarding rating accuracy and rating theory. The implications of the results for equity valuation are discussed. …
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In this paper, we perform a statistical analysis of the forecasting properties of Norges Bank's macroeconomic forecasts in the period 1998 - 2019. As a part of the analysis we assess Norges Bank's forecasts against similar forecasts by Statistics Norway and forecasts from simple models. The...
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