This study investigates whether experts’ group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts’ judgmental adjustments and a range of...

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods...