This paper studies how the social transmission of information with echo chambers affects financial markets. In an equilibrium model, investors trade competitively in the market based on public information revealed by asset prices and private information accumulated through word-of-mouth...

Individual investors often invest actively and lose thereby. Social interaction seems to exacerbate this tendency. In our model, senders' propensity to discuss their strategies' returns, and receivers' propensity to be converted, are increasing in sender return. A distinctive implication is that...

We consider a market economy where two rational agents are able to learn the distribution of future events. In this context, we study whether moving away from the standard Bayesian belief updating, in the sense of under-reaction to some degree to new information, may be strategically convenient...

We study the design of CDS auctions, which determine the payments by CDS sellers to CDS buyers following the defaults of bonds. Through a simple model, we find that the current design of CDS auctions leads to biased prices and inefficient allocations. This is because various restrictions imposed...

This paper investigates how FOMC members revise their forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. Based on a new data set of forecasts from individual FOMC members between 1992 and 2000 it is shown that FOMC members intentionally overrevise their forecasts at the first revision and underrevise at...

We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular we investigate the question of how to conduct finite sample inference on the parameters given an adaptive lasso...

When the yield curve is modelled using an a ffine factor model, residuals may still contain relevant information and do not adhere to the familiar white noise assumption. This paper proposes a pragmatic way to improve out of sample performance for yield curve forecasting. The proposed adjustment...

This paper investigates how FOMC members revise their forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. Based on a new data set of forecasts from individual FOMC members between 1992 and 2000 it is shown that FOMC members intentionally overrevise their forecasts at the first revision and underrevise at...

The affine dynamic term structure model (DTSM) is the canonical empirical finance representation of the yield curve. However, the possibility that DTSM estimates may be distorted by small-sample bias has been largely ignored. We show that conventional estimates of DTSM coefficients are indeed...