This paper discusses the impact of a series of psychological phenomena on the U.S. response to COVID-19, focusing on forecasts of cases and deaths. The specific phenomena comprise unrealistic optimism bias, overconfidence, anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, motivated reasoning, and...

Because of limits to arbitrage, it is reasonable for sell-side analysts' target prices to deviate from their corresponding estimates of future fundamental value. Although this inequality does not imply that sell-side analysts should provide biased estimates of fundamental value, many do. A key...