relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence. The first theory notes that simple … asymmetry produces overconfidence (Kőszegi, 2006; Weinberg, 2006). We test an important specific prediction of these models … might make this belief worse. Our data also reject this prediction. The third theory is that overconfidence is induced by …

overconfidence and linked to the judgment literature in psychology. Empirical tests of the models often fail to find evidence for the … predicted effects of overconfidence. These studies assume, however, that a specific type of overconfidence, i.e., miscalibration … the theoretical predictions of the overconfidence literature in economics and finance, one cannot rely on the well …