Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two … escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two … escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems …

are relevant to forecasting inflation. The set of top forecasts often includes forecast combinations, tree-based methods …In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out …-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new …