I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

We investigate the factor structure of the term structure of interest rates and argue that characterizing the minimal dimension of the data-generating process is more challenging than currently appreciated. To circumvent these difficulties, we introduce a novel nonparametric bootstrap that is...

Gaussian affine term structure models attribute time‐varying bond risk premia to changing risk prices driven by the conditional means of the risk factors, while structural models with recursive preferences credit it to stochastic volatility. We reconcile these competing channels by introducing...

This chapter surveys the literature on fixed-income pricing models, including dynamic term-structure models, and interest-rate sensitive, derivative pricing models. Our overview of conceptual approaches highlights the tradeoffs that have emerged between the complexity of the probability model...

Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Efficient markets -- Chapter 3 Equity premium -- Chapter 4 The dividend ratio model -- Chapter 5 Bond valuation -- Chapter 6 Yield curves -- Chapter 7 Term structure models -- Chapter 8 Real estate market -- Chapter 9 Derivative securities -- Chapter 10...