This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that...

This paper investigates bond return predictability and its economic value. Using regression models, we first examine both the statistical and economic significance of bond return predictability in the Chinese market, and analyze the non-Markov and stochastic volatility properties of bond yields....