This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information...

This paper investigates the source of predictability of bond risk premia by means of long-term forward interest rates. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. We show that the predictive ability of...

Theoretical studies show that shocks to funding constraints should affect and be af-fected by market illiquidity. However, little is known about the empirical magnitude of such responses because of the intrinsic endogeneity of illiquidity shocks. This paper adopts an identification technique...

This paper investigates high-frequency (HF) trading in the U.S. Treasury market around macroeconomic news announcements. After identifying HF market and limit orders based on the speed of their placement alteration and cancellation deemed beyond manual ability, we use the introduction of the...

Foreign investors play a key role in sovereign bond markets in emerging market economies (EMEs), in part because their portfolio flows are sensitive to bond returns and are therefore pro-cyclical in nature. This note discusses the implications of the framework proposed by So et al (2019), which...

Theoretical studies show that shocks to funding constraints should affect and be affected by market illiquidity. However, little is known about the empirical magnitude of such responses because of the intrinsic endogeneity of illiquidity shocks. This paper adopts an identification technique...