We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model fits the dynamic facts quite well if...

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in...

We study the robustness of block resampling procedures for time series. We first derive a set of formulas to characterize their quantile breakdown point. For the moving block bootstrap and the subsampling, we find a very low quantile breakdown point. A similar robustness problem arises in...

We use recent advances in multiple testing to identify the countries for which Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) held over the last century. The approach controls the multiplicity problem inherent in simultaneously testing for PPP on several time series, thereby avoiding spurious rejections. It has...

Employing the “small-bandwidth” asymptotic framework of Cattaneo, Crump, and Jansson (2009), this paper studies the properties of several bootstrap-based inference procedures associated with a kernel-based estimator of density-weighted average derivatives proposed by Powell, Stock, and...

Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric QR series framework, covering many regressors as a special...

Inference using difference-in-differences with clustered data requires care. Previous research has shown that t tests based on a cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) severely over-reject when there are few treated clusters, that different variants of the wild cluster bootstrap can...

There has been a recent interest in reporting p-values adjusted for resampling-based stepdown multiple testing procedures proposed in Romano and Wolf (2005a,b). The original papers only describe how to carry out multiple testing at a fixed significance level. Computing adjusted p-values instead...

The paper proposes a new algorithm for finding the confidence set of a collection of forecasts or prediction models. Existing numerical implementations for finding the confidence set use an elimination approach where one starts with the full collection of models and successively eliminates the...