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Among many developments in statistical modelling in recent years, non- and semiparametric methods have proved to be a particularly powerful data-analytic tool. Nevertheless, there still exist justified doubts regarding there forecasting performance, for example in the context of financial time...
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Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical technique to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample back-testing turns out to be unreliable in the situation when selection is based on...
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This paper proposes two consistent model selection procedures for factor-augmented regressions in finite samples. We first demonstrate that the usual cross-validation is inconsistent, but that a generalization, leave-d-out cross-validation, selects the smallest basis for the space spanned by the...
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We develop two new methods for selecting the penalty parameter for the e1-penalized high-dimensional M-estimator, which we refer to as the analytic and bootstrap-after-cross-validation methods. For both methods, we derive nonasymptotic error bounds for the corresponding e1-penalized M-estimator...
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