The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

inflation target and its exposure to political pressures. We apply our methodology to Brazil as well to highlight its advantages … based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an … the central bank’s ability to lower inflation expectations towards its inflation target via current interest rate …

This paper investigates monetary policy and basic macroeconomic relationships involving output, inflation rate …, interest rate, and money in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation, it compares three different periods …: moderately-increasing inflation (1975-1985), high inflation (1985-1994), and low inflation (1994-2000). The main results are the …

presidential election campaign in Brazil. Moreover, the Brazilian monetary policy exhibits nonlinear patterns that better captures …

data of six emerging inflation targeting economies (Turkey, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Chile, Poland, and South Africa …Most emerging market central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy system. The heart of … inflation targeting system is inflation expectations. The success of a central bank in achieving targets depends on to the …