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robust across countries and time periods. Typically, the correlation coefficients at long-run horizons are significantly … negative and the correlation coefficients at short-run horizons are substantially higher. Additionally, there is evidence of … positive correlation at short-run forecast horizons for some countries. …
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More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...
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