Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 8,799
Cover Image
Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018
-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
Cover Image
An Inflation-Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area
Jarocinski, Marek - 2016
are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981025
Cover Image
Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-Time Swiss GDP Data
Glocker, Christian - 2019
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy allowing for non-linearities by means of a two-state Markov-chain. The selection of an appropriate set of indicators utilizes a combinatorial algorithm. The model's forecasting performance is as good as that of peers with richer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892535
Cover Image
Nowcasting GDP and its Components in a Data-Rich Environment : The Merits of the Indirect Approach
Giovannelli, Alessandro; Citton, Ambra; Tegami, Cristian; … - 2021
The national accounts provide a coherent and exaustive description of the current state of the economy, but are available at the quarterly frequency and are released with a nonignorable publication lag. The paper proposes and illustrates a method for nowcasting and forecasting the sixteen main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238896
Cover Image
Nowcasting GDP and its Components in a Data-Rich Environment : The Merits of the Indirect Approach
Giovannelli, Alessandro - 2020
The national accounts provide a coherent and exaustive description of the current state of the economy, but are available at the quarterly frequency and are released with a nonignorable publication lag. The paper proposes and illustrates a method for nowcasting and forecasting the sixteen main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832608
Cover Image
Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data
Glocker, Christian; Wegmüller, Philipp - 2017
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
Cover Image
Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods
Kant, Dennis; Pick, Andreas; de Winter, Jasper - 2022
This paper compares the ability of several econometric and machine learning methods to nowcast GDP in (pseudo) real-time. The analysis takes the example of Dutch GDP over the years 1992-2018 using a broad data set of monthly indicators. It discusses the forecast accuracy but also analyzes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238465
Cover Image
Real-time consideration of systematic patterns in Maltese GDP data and revisions
Debono, Nathaniel - 2024
Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461449
Cover Image
EuroMInd-D : a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product for the euro area
Proietti, Tommaso; Marczak, Martyna; Mazzi, Gian Luigi - 2015
EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom-up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010502772
Cover Image
Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP under structural breaks
Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2014
containing information on real economic activity, inflation, interest rates and Divisia monetary aggregates produces the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401309