Most discrete time literature uses the beta that results from a regression of an asset's simple returns on various factors to quantify risk. The departing point for this thesis is the consistent use of log-returns. When log-returns are considered, the relevant measure of systematic risk becomes...

With the emergence and expansion of credit derivatives, which are financial instruments that are based on corporate bonds and provide their holders a protection against default, the importance of estimating probabilities of default has reached an unprecedented level. We have developed a Bayesian...

We present a series of models capturing the non-stationarities and dependencies in the variance of yields on natural gas futures. Both univariate and multivariate models are explored, based on the ARIMA and Hidden-Markov methodologies. The models capture the effects uncovered through various...

On September 22, 2004, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Supervision (OFHEO) made public a report that was highly critical of accounting methods at Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprise that plays a leading role in the secondary mortgage market. OFHEO charged Fannie Mae with not...

Previous studies of the quality of market-forecasted volatility have used the volatility that is impliedby exchange-traded option prices. The use of implied volatility in estimating the market view of futurevolatility has suffered from variable measurement errors, such as the non-synchronization...

The White information matrix (IM) test is applied to the linear regression model with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors. ARCH models are used widely in analyzing economic and financial time series data. However, in practice, the models are not often thoroughly tested. We...

This project is a case study on three small market Major League Baseball teams: Oakland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. The purpose is to discover why some small market teams fail and why some succeed using the hypothesis that small market teams with better player development systems are more...