In this paper, we use a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a flattening of euro area yield curves. Our findings indicate positive effects on real activity and prices, both within the euro area as well as in neighboring economies. Spillovers...

This paper examines the role of disaster shock in a one-sector, representative agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). First, it estimates a panel vector autoregresive (VAR) model for output, investment, trade balance, consumption, and country spread to capture the economic...

Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We...

This paper studies the effectiveness of Euro Area (EA) fiscal policy, during the recent financial crisis, using an estimated New Keynesian model with a bank. A key dimension of policy in the crisis was massive government support for banks - that dimension has so far received little attention in...

This paper develops a small open economy model to investigate the impact of rising sovereign bond market spreads on the real economy. One key element of the model is a "sovereign risk channel" through which tensions in the sovereign bond market tend to spill over into private credit markets. The...

Financial crises in emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s often entailed abrupt declines in foreign capital inflows, improvements in trade balance, and large declines in output and total factor productivity (TFP). This paper develops a two-sector small open economy model wherein...

We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about "sudden stop" events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing the...

In light of increased economic integration and global warming, addressing critical issues such as the role of multilateral climate policies and the strategic interaction of countries in climate negotiations becomes paramount. We thus established for this paper an open economy environmental...

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We illustrate this on the basis of about 3,100 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Prior to the financial crisis, spread fluctuations in advanced economies are an order of...

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...