Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an … efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for … policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly "Inflation Reports". The costs and benefits of transparency in …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

empirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction mechanism from the mid 80s until 2005. We are able …

The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the entire past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional … the job explains this missing inflation. We derive this novel concept of slack from a model in which a drop in the on …

The concept of cointegration (see e.g., Engle and Granger, 1987; Johansen, 1988) has extensively been used to model … using U.S., Japanese, German and Swiss data. -- cointegration ; equilibrium adjustment ; forecasting ; rational expectations …

Based on recent evidence of fractional cointegration in commodity spot and futures markets, we investigate whether a …

revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …