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Implications of output gap uncertainty in times of crisis
Bouis, Romain; Cournède, Boris; Christensen, Ane Kathrine - 2012
more weight on alternative indicators of inflation pressure such as wage settlements, trends in unit labour costs and a … wide range of indicators of inflation expectations. The recent fall in margins observed in some countries may, for instance … States, the large unemployment gap could also keep wage inflation under pressure despite a flattening Phillips curve. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690945
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Keeping track of global trade in real time
Martínez-Martín, Jaime; Rusticelli, Elena - 2018
This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995789
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Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model
Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020
The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436
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Fiscal convergence, business cycle volatility and growth
Furceri, Davide - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009569028