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Presents the empirical data of business cycles and the theories that economists have developed to explain and prevent them, and considers case studies of recessions and depressions in the United States and internationally.
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This paper uses data from 1960-2015 to evaluate the predictive content of financial variables and unconventional monetary policy measures for the U.S. output growth and inflation before, during, and after the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, this work shows that the predictive...
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This paper highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that these two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up...
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needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the … boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productivity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery … fiscal deficit, even in the face of high public debt. The second is product market reforms, and reforms aimed at increasing …
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