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Asymmetric phase shifts in the U.S. industrial production cycles

Chang, Yongsung; Hwang, Sunoong - 2011

We identify the cyclical turning points of 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (i) Cyclical phase shifts are highly concentrated around the aggregate turning points; (ii) In contrast to the conventional notion of a ‘sudden stop and slow recovery,’ troughs...