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Commodity price shocks and the business cycle : structural evidence for the US
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011 - This version: March 28, 2011
particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
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Comparing two methods for the identification of news shocks
Beaudry, Paul; Portier, Franck; Seymen, Atılım - 2013
Recent empirical literature delivered, based on different structural VAR approaches, controversial results concerning the role of anticipated technology-news-shocks in business cycle fluctuations. We deal with this controversy and investigate (i) the extent to thich two prominent structural VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225547
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Uncertainty and the Great Recession
Born, Benjamin; Breuer, Sebastian; Elstner, Steffen - 2014 - This version: November 5, 2014
Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429213
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Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework
Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437007
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Identifying the shocks behind business cycle asynchrony in Euroland
Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
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What drives inventory accumulation? : news on rates of return and marginal costs
Görtz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher M.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2019
We study the effects of news shocks on inventory accumulation in a structural VAR framework. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. Theory suggests that the transmission channel of news shocks to inventories works...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119865
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The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy
Gómez-Loscos, Ana; Montañés, Antonio; Gadea, María … - 2010
across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011575575
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Domestic Versus International Determinants Of European Business Cycles: A GVAR Approach
Boschi, Melisso; Marzo, Massimiliano; Salotti, Simone - Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National … - 2013
We investigate the sources of macroeconomic (output and inflation) variability in selected European countries within … currently members of the European Monetary Union and non-members. As for inflation, on the contrary, regional factors are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011185978
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Output Gaps, Inflation and Financial Cycles in the United Kingdom
Melolinna, Marko - 2016
financial conditions have some inflation forecasting ability over the monetary policy relevant two to three-year horizon during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999067
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Domestic versus International Determinants of European Business Cycles : A GVAR Approach
Boschi, Melisso - 2013
We investigate the sources of macroeconomic (output and inflation) variability in selected European countries within … currently members of the European Monetary Union and non-members. As for inflation, on the contrary, regional factors are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081263